Glos floods not caused by climate change?

A recent analysis of the severe floods which hit us here in Gloucestershire last July found that they were exceptional events that cannot 'readily be linked to climate change'. Many of us including experts and even Gordon Brown suggested they could be due to climate change and a harbinger of similar summer-time flooding to come.

Photo: Ruscombe view

The Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford, analysed flooding trends for the last 40 years and found there appears to be a trend for less summer flooding, but more rainfall in winter. Terry Marsh, of the centre said: "Due to the inherent variability of the UK climate, any extreme hydrological event cannot readily be linked directly to climate change." He went on to say that a historical perspective showed how extraordinary last summer's floods were.

However the increase in winter flooding would fit with predictions from some climate modellers for wetter winters and drier summers - but this research says it is impossible to say definitively that the apparent trends in the data are down to global warming. Sadly some media reports seemed to shift focus to say there was no proof of climate change - a point made by a Labour party supporter who phoned me from Gloucester today on this issue. He was disappointed by the reports and the failures in the media to even report on the research properly....

Anyhow while important, this research should not be taken in isolation - it only looked at 40 years and other research indicates that with climate change we will see more extreme and more unusual events. This research is definitely not evidence that climate change is not real! It may well be that this is not one of those events which is directly linked to climate change. The report suggests on the basis of the 40 years of records that the risks maybe lessening in a hydrological sense, but we should not forget that our vulnerability is going up massively due to flood plain development - a point recognised by the authors of the report. It is possible and indeed likely that with wetter winters, the frequency of ground water flooding in vulnerable areas may increase.