12 Feb 2013

Badgers: the Great Perturbation Fantasy

The blog title was the title of a letter by Martin Hancox (Ex-Government Badger TB Panel) to the press...he asked if I could publish on my blog....as someone who has long campaigned on this issue I am happy to support debate - click read more for the main part of it.
 ..sadly, the proposed Pilot badgers culls/ vaccines are almost entirely based on the highly selective "Pseudoscientific" findings of the RBCT or Krebs culling trial with after-effects apparently even in 2011 6 years after the cull ended in 2005, removing a mere 311 TB badgers from reactive areas, and 1204 from proactive widespread culls (1515, TB + Out of  11, 000 Culled from 1900 sq.km.). Quite unbelievable that so few badgers could have had such an explosive effect by perturbing the badger population!?

In fact, the ISGs own data showed that reactive culls had NIL Effect, 1 year after culls ended, 358 vs 356 accumulated breakdowns in NO cull areas. The rise happened before the culls anyway, ISG p. 109, and were via bought in cows with a different DNA Spoligotype to local TB badgers!

In truth, proactive culls had NIL Effect on unconfirmed breakdowns ISG p. 96, 101.  BUT given the absolute tsunami of incomprehensible statistics, it is no wonder everyone has been bamboozled into believing  that culls caused the rise in outside proactive areas too. BUT, what no-one seems to have noticed is the stupidity of this "logic". HOW ON EARTH are badger immigrating INTO the cull vacuum area, SUPPOSED TO CAUSE A RISE IN THE OUTSIDE CATTLE !!??? Indeed, ISGs own data show there was a DROP in the first 500 m of the 2 km. wide outside ring, because  inside herds on annual tests overlapped that much. The rise at Start of cull was simply a foot & mouth jump, and nearly as big a jump after culls ended corresponding to the 2008 countrywide jump due to more cattle tested , including pre-movements.

It is an absolute tragedy that everyone has swallowed the ISGs " Great Perturbation Mythopoesis ".. which determines policy to get around this mythical edge effect, This must be The Greatest Pseudoscientific Saga  of the century ..an even greater Scientific Hoax than Piltdown Man.

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