I've just read the latest copy of SchNEWS and their item on Iraq - the death toll in Iraq has now passed the one million mark. Somehow that news was lost in all the hype of the 'surge' and democracy being just around the corner. Here's the bulk of the SchNEWS report:
Opinion Research Business (ORB), BBC Newsnight's chosen pollsters, conducted a survey of 1,500 Iraqi households in August in which people were asked if anyone in the household had died as a result of the conflict since 2003. This is the usual method for assessing the number of deaths in a warzone, and has been used in Darfur and the former Yugoslavia. ORB concludes "Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households, this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003. Calculating the affect from the margin of error we believe that the range is a minimum of 733,158 to a maximum of 1,446,063."
Detailed assessments such as those conducted by Iraq Body Count, which rely on deaths being recorded in at least two media sources, typically offer a statistic of around 20% of actual fatalities. In sheer numbers, what is happening in Iraq has now surpassed the horrors of the massacres in Rwanda and is in the same order of magnitude as the great crimes of the twentieth century. And the government response to this is... nothing. The same cynical silence which greeted last year's Lancet report estimating Iraqi deaths at around 600,000.
DOGMAS OF WAR
These figures should be provoking howls of outrage from the liberal press at the bloody mess into which the Iraqi people have been hurled by Bush and the UK government. But as the number of deaths reaches the limits of human imagining, the sheer scale of the carnage prevents understanding. Perhaps the mainstream press over here have given this survey so little attention because the real implication of its horrific contents is that our leaders are out and out war criminals.
The poll also questioned the surviving relatives on the way in which their loved ones were killed. It broke down as 48% gunshot wounds, 20% car bomb, 9% aerial bombardment, 6% accidents and 6% another blast/ordnance. This poll didn't attempt to apportion blame for individual deaths but the earlier Lancet poll showed that 56% of deaths were directly attributable to Coalition forces i.e. that 350,000 were identifiably killed by US or UK armed forces. There's no reason to think that that proportion has changed and, with the 'surge', there's every reason to think it has gone up.
BULLET POINTS
How then is the Coalition accomplishing this carnage? The fact that deaths by shooting are so prevalent demonstrates the close-up nature of the coalition/insurgency conflict. For the past four years, the American military has sent around 1,000 patrols each day into hostile neighbourhoods, looking to capture or kill insurgents. (Since February 2007, this has increased to nearly 5,000 patrols a day, if Iraqi troops participating in the American surge are included).
These patrols are operating in areas where anyone could be an insurgent. If you were patrolling downtown Baghdad, would you take any chances? Their orders are to break down doors, shoot at anything suspicious, and throw grenades into rooms or homes where there is any chance of resistance. If they encounter tangible resistance, they call in artillery and/or air power rather than try to invade a building. If a patrol is ambushed or comes under attack from a roadside bomb, soldiers rely on their superior fire-power to extricate themselves from the situation. According to US military statistics, these patrols currently result in around 3,000 firefights every month, an average of just under 100 per day. The US army is currently firing more bullets than can be manufactured - with that amount of lead flying around, such high levels of civilian casualties seem not implausible but inevitable.
As Coalition troops find it harder to operate on the ground in Iraq, the US are massively expanding their aerial attack capacity. There was a fivefold increase in the amount of munitions dropped on the country in the first six months of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006. Squadrons of attack planes have been added to the in-country fleet. The air reconnaissance arm has almost doubled since last year, with the powerful B1-B bomber recalled to action over the country. The stage is set for an increase in civilian casualties as notoriously indiscriminate US air power is unleashed on the Iraqi people. Air Force planes have struck "factories" producing makeshift bombs, weapons caches uncovered by ground troops and, in one instance, "several houses insurgents were using as fire positions".
Iraq has already become a testing ground for a new breed of remote control or robot aircraft. The MQ-9 "Reaper", already being deployed, is a pilotless aircraft, capable of carrying four Hellfire missiles, plus two 500lb bombs. "It is possible that in our lifetime we will be able to run a war without ever leaving the US," said one colonel in the US Air Force. Hey presto! Remote controlled genocide.
See my recent comment to press on Iraq and Afghanistan here. Is Gordon Brown really just going to keep troops in Iraq to keep Bush happy? What other reason?
'NOT ONE MORE DEATH' - central London demonstration on 8 October - assemble Trafalgar Square, 1pm. See www.stopthewar.org for more.
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From Stop the War:
SAVE THE CHILDREN – UNLESS THEY ARE IRAQIS
Gordon Brown had a lot to say about children in his speech this week to
the Labour Party Conference, quoting from the Bible, “Suffer the little
children to come unto me”, and ending with this plea, “Surely in this 21st
century human compassion can lift the pain from the face of a suffering
child.”
Unless, of course, they are children in Iraq, which got just a single
mention in Brown’s speech. Little wonder, because what has the Iraq war –
which Brown has supported without reservation from its outset to the
present day – brought to the children of Iraq?
* Iraq’s Ministry of Health estimates that half of the country’s children
suffer from some form of malnutrition. According to a recent study by
UNICEF, 10 percent of Iraqi children under five are acutely malnourished,
while another 20 percent are chronically malnourished. As many as 260,000
children have died as a result of the occupation, according to one
estimate reported by The Independent.
* Less than a third of Iraq’s children now attend school, compared to 100
percent attendance before the March 2003 invasion. For those that do go to
school, a recent survey of Baghdad primary schools showed that 70 percent
of them suffer symptoms of trauma-related stress, due directly to the
destruction, mass slaughter and chaos caused by war and occupation.
* The war has orphaned countless numbers of Iraqi children and, as the
United Nations reports, “Thousands of homeless children throughout
Iraq...survive by begging, stealing or scavenging garbage for food. Only
four years ago, the vast majority of these children were living at home
with their families.”
* The virtual collapse of the Iraqi health service – once the highest
quality health provision in the Middle East – has been particularly tragic
for Iraqi children. Earlier this year, 100 prominent British physicians
wrote an open letter to Tony Blair expressing their extreme concern over
the impact of the occupation on Iraqi children: “We are concerned that
children are dying in Iraq for want of medical treatment. Sick or injured
children, who could otherwise be treated by simple means, are left to die
in their hundreds because they do not have access to basic medications or
other resources. Children who have lost hands, feet and limbs are left
without prostheses. Children with grave psychological distress are left
untreated.”
If Gordon Brown is sincere in his concern for children, he has a real
opportunity on Monday 8 October in his speech to Parliament on Iraq to
make a difference. Instead of continuing to support an American foreign
policy which has brought nothing but disaster to the children of Iraq, he
can announce in that speech that all British troops will be withdrawn from
Iraq immediately. He can also announce that in the interests of the
children of Afghanistan, all British troops will be withdrawn from the
other unwinnable war where Britain is doing George Bush’s bidding. And
Brown can state categorically, in the interests of the children of Iran,
that Britain will not support any attack by the USA on that country, as is
now looking increasingly likely.
The vast majority of people in Britain are opposed to this country’s
support for George Bush’s warmongering, whether it be in Iraq, Afghanistan
or Iran. The Stop the War Coalition aims to maximise the pressure for a
change in government policy that reflects this majority view. Our
activities over the next two weeks include:
* A NATIONAL DEMONSTRATION outside Parliament on Monday 8 October, when
Gordon Brown makes his statement to the House of Commons (details below);
* A MASS WRITE-IN to Gordon Brown on Wednesday 3 October, using a postcard
designed for Stop the War by graphical artist David Gentleman (details
below);
* A FULL PAGE IN THE GUARDIAN on Wednesday 3 October to publish our Open
Letter to Gordon Brown and to help build support for the demonstration
(details below).
* A NATIONAL LOBBY OF MPS – Contacting local MPs in the next two weeks to
urge him or her to support the call for British troops to be withdrawn
from Iraq now.
We are urging everyone who has watched in horror as our government has
followed slavishly wherever American war policies have beckoned, to attend
this demonstration and to participate in the mass write-in to Gordon
Brown. Please help publicise these activities as widely as possible and
encourage everyone you know, who opposes Brown’s war policies, to join us.
More from Stop the War coalition:
On Monday 8 October the Stop the War Coalition will be marching
from Trafalgar Square to Parliament calling for all troops in
Iraq to be brought home immediately.
After a series of relatively co-operative meetings, the police
now say they have been instructed not to allow the march to take
place and that all demonstrations are banned within a mile of
Parliament whilst in session.
This is a new development which threatens our democratic rights.
When Gordon Brown became prime minister he promised to liberalise
the laws on protest, saying that one of his principles would be,
"civil liberties safeguarded and enhanced". Government ministers,
including Gordon Brown, have lined up to support the right to
protest in Burma. It is important that these same ministers also
defend the rights of people in this country to protest
peacefully.
We are determined to march to make our views known to parliament
on 8 October, when Gordon Brown will make his long awaited
statement on Iraq. We urge everyone who opposes the war policies
of our government to join the call for all British troops to come
home immediately and to help defend our civil liberties now under
attack. We have produced a petition calling on the authorities to
review the decision to ban the march.
SIGN THE PETITION ONLINE aimed at defending our right to protest
peacefully. You can do this here: http://www.stopwar.org.uk/
GORDON BROWN OPEN LETTER PUBLISHED 3 OCTOBER
Stop the War's open letter to Gordon Brown calling for the
withdrawal of all British troops from Iraq will be published in a
full page advert, funded by supporters of Stop the War, in The
Guardian on Wednesday 3 October (See http://tinyurl.com/3xafku).
Among the hundreds of signatories are:
Tariq Ali, Iain Banks, Tony Benn, Ian Brown, Caryl Churchill,
Harry Cohen MP, Jeremy Corbyn MP, Bob Crow (Gen Sec RMT) Brian
Eno, George Galloway MP, Rose Gentle (MFAW) David Gentleman,
Lindsey German, (Convenor STWC), Bill Greenshields (National VP,
NUT), Ben Griffin (ex SAS soldier), Kelvin Hopkins MP, Kate
Hudson (Chair CND), Jean Lambert MEP, Dr Caroline Lucas MEP,
Alice Mahon, Prof Kamil Majid, Miriam Margolyes, John McDonnell
MP, Adrian Mitchell, Greg Mulholland MP, Andrew Murray (Chair
STWC), Michael Nyman, Adam Price MP, Sami Ramadani, John Rees
(Sec Respect Coalition), Yvonne Ridley, Paul Rowen MP, Mark
Rylance, Prof David Seddon, Alan Simpson MP, Linda Smith, Chair
Respect Coalition, Prof Andrew Spencer, Hans von Sponeck, Prof
Phil Taylor, Mark Thomas, UNISON (London Fire Authority), Walter
Wolfgang, Tony Woodley (Joint Gen Sec UNITE), Cllr Salma Yaqoob,
Susannah York, Haifa Zangana, Benjamin Zephaniah
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