Peak Oil: radio 4 play tonight

A headline from The Independent this week said: "Energy watchdog warns of supply crunch within five years" (10 July 2007).

Photos: Peak Oil ad and below Bristol airport fuel lorry

Here is some of what the article said:

The world faces an oil supply crunch with prices poised to soar to new all-time highs over the next five years, a report from the International Energy Agency warned yesterday. In its Medium-Term Oil Market report the Paris-based organisation predicted that demand would rise by 2.2 per cent a year between 2007 and 2012 as the world's economy expands at about 4.5 per cent a year. The demand will be driven by the fast-growing economies of Asia and the Middle East, where the thirst for black gold will grow more than three times faster than the 30 industrialised members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. That is because several countries in those regions are set to break the $3,000 per capita income level, when consumers can afford to buy energy-consuming products such as cars and white goods.

The IEA's report said: "Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010. It is possible that the supply crunch could be deferred - but not by much." It continues: "The potential effects of a combination of low Opec spare capacity and slow non-Opec production growth are of significant concern - all the more so when considered alongside tightness in other hydrocarbons, particularly the natural gas market."

IEA's head of oil industry and markets division Lawrence Eagles warned: "The results of our analysis are quite strong. Something needs to happen. Either we need to have more supplies coming on stream, or we need to have lower demand growth." The IEA has also warned that additional global refining capacity over the next five years will not match earlier expectations as a result of rising costs and a shortage of engineers. This will delay construction.

To me it is still astonishing that there is not more proper discussion about this issue: click on the Peak Oil label below this entry for more info. The problem seems to be being pushed under the carpet - the trouble is it is now becoming too obvious to try and hide any longer. It is great that the issue is getting air time on radio 4 in the Friday Play: I'll catch up with it sometime this week.

Tonight the 21:00 Friday Play with part two next Friday is "A Second to Midnight": A contemporary thriller set in Nigeria: Western Governments and global oil companies have long predicted that the 'Peak', when oil reserves become finite and the markets begin
to panic, is as far off as 2030. But oil company geologist Dr Rob Turner wrote a report trashing this timescale, saying that we had already reached the 'Peak'. But then he was forced to bury it. Listen here for 7 days after if you miss on radio.