See last few blogs for info on Professor Heinbergs visit to Stroud: talk in Subscription Rooms to 400 people, the workshop at Ruskin Mill and his presentation to Cabinet last night.Photos: Richard presenting his material to Transition Network conference yesterday
As Richard Heinberg made clear the truth Governments and the media seem to be either unaware or in complete denial of the fast approaching 'Peak Oil' - this 'peak' is the point at which oil production rises to its highest point before declining. Almost all expert opinion already agrees that it is fast approaching: Heinberg acknowledged that there is evidence to suggest the Peak was this year - certainly it is likely within the next years, and few scientists suggest it will not occur within fifteen.
The significance of Peak Oil can hardly be overstated, as oil is the fundamental underpinning of our economy. When the oil runs out the economic and social dislocation will be unprecedented. The global economy will be forced to make radical changes as the world competes on price for ever-dwindling levels of production.Former CIA Director Robert M. Gates said in 2005: "The American people are going to pay a terrible price for not having an energy strategy." Similarly in Britain the main parties are failing and failing dismally to even debate how we can manage the transition to a low-energy lifestyle.
Things are slowly changing - in the US while Exxon-Mobil deny a problem Chevron oil have launched a campaign "Will You Join Us" - that website is worth a visit just to see the oil barrel counter. Hopefully Heinbergs presentation to the local Council will also have an effect. Locally in the Transition Stroud group and within the Green party we have plans to push the issue more - already all District and County councillors in Gloucestershire and Parish in Stroud had a flyer or email about the Heinberg talk - we hope to get the issue into everyday language and also take the fear out....
Peak Oil', like 'Climate Change', demands, rapid and radical policies now, not the current pathetic tokenism towards renewable energy and energy conservation. Business-as-usual will not work, but we can meet the challenge if we act now. Indeed as Heinberg has said this provides us with an opportunity - we must take it!! See his slide of the different scenarios.
Photo: Heinbergs slide of different scenarios depending on peak and when we actFor me his talks were hugely useful and dispelled the myth that new oil discoveries mean we have nothing to worry about - also that, as the EU showed recently, even coal is running out and hasn't got the 150 years that was once talked about - and we can't reopen closed mines - not that we would want to with climate change ever more threatening.
Resources
Richards' website has some info - especially his two books - but I wanted to point out a few key resources and points that Richard himself endorses:
The Post-Carbon Institute (close to being like Transition Towns here):
www.postcarbon.org/
Rob Hopkins excellent blog:
http://transitionculture.org/
Daniel Learch has a new book out soon on Post Carbon Cities (a guide for local governments):
http://postcarboncities.net//
Hirsh report for US Government: "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management"(Feb 2005) - see here.
An excellent report by Oregon, Portlands' Peak Oil Task Force for the City Council:
www.portlandonline.com
The two best websites for up-to-date info:
Energy Bulletin:
http://www.energybulletin.net/
The Oil Drum:
http://www.theoildrum.com/
Introductions to Peak Oil
Peak Oil primer here.
Richard Heinbergs lecture on 'Peak Oil and the Crisis in World Agriculture' delivered to the E F Schumacher Society in Stockbridge, Massachusetts on October 28 2006. See here.
Other articles re Peak Oil here especially Green MEP Caroline Lucas' report on oil and food security here.
6 comments:
Modern people put energy to so many destructive uses (building roads, shopping malls, industrial estates, intensive monoculture farming, habitat destruction and so on and on) that the sooner it runs out the better.
Agree re destructive uses but sadly oil running out will hit the poorest hardest - already lights are out in several poorer countries due to the increase in oil prices over the last couple of years - oil running out will also mean a return to coal which is much worse for climate change - no doubt the rich will continue to travel by 4x4 on biodiesel grown instead of food crops while the poor starve - however if we can make some of those significant changes now things will be much better in the future.....
Philip - I can see what you're saying about the rich making the poor suffer. Ultimately, however, the rich can only squeeze people so hard before the poor do something about it. There's a lot more poor people than there is rich after all.
Of course, it would be much, much pleasanter for everybody to agree to live sensible, thrifty lifestyles instead.
Anything else is just postponing the inevitable evil day, imo.
Severe climate change is unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel...At Mexico's enormous oilfield named Cantarell, production is declining very rapidly......Shall we regard the oil that remains underground as a resource that can cause future carbon dioxide emissions or shall we accept that it is, in fact, inaccessible?
The UN's climate panel IPCC, that recently published its fourth report on climate change, regards the oil left in ground as a resource...The fact that the IPCC calls upon our politicians to make decisions that will discourage use of fossil fuels creates an impression that enormous fossil fuel resources exist: but following the research that we do at the Uppsala Hydrocarbon depletion study Group, UHDSG, there is every reason to question this.
At Uppsala University, they study global energy resources and they have now completed a detailed analysis of future oil production. By breaking down production into seven well-defined parts they can now give a timeframe for the moment when we will reach the maximum production rate for oil, or Peak Oil - the historical production peak. It will occur between 2008 and 2018.
If the world's giant oilfields, that produce 60 per cent of the world oil, behave like Cantarell we have a worst case scenario with a production peak in 2008. But if, instead, they follow the best prognosis for Cantarell, and we simultaneously reduce our consumption, then we get a best case scenario with maximal production in 2018....
...We need new estimates of future temperature increases based on realistic expectations of oil, natural gas and coal use. Only then can we make sensible decisions for our future.
The world's greatest future problem is that too many people must share too little energy. In the current political debate we presumably need to replace the word environment with energy, but the policy required to tackle the energy problem will greatly benefit the environment.
See The Independent:
http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece
Irish TV prog... it's really rather good, in fact a friend says it may be the best film he's ever seen on Peak Oil.
Future Shock - 18 June 2007 RTÉ's Chief Economics Correspondent George Lee looks at the consequences of Peak Oil. What will happen to Ireland in particular once global reserves have been depleted?
See it at: http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/av_20070618.html
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